The paper proposes a list of five „stylized facts”, regarded as the main trends with respect to the development of the global economy in the 20th c. The author’s main purpose is to answer the question whether, in the light of the contemporary growth theory and demographic forecasts, these trends are likely to continue unchanged also in the 21st c. Taking into account this theory and those forecasts, the paper offers forecasts of the average GDP per capita for both the countries of the Technology Frontier Area (TFA) and the catching-up countries. By these forecasts, the strong divergence trend of the last two centuries will be replaced by a strong convergence trend during the 21st c. Moreover, the global rate of growth of the per capita GDP will continue to be high in the first half of the current century, but strongly declining in the second half.
The aim of the paper is to measure and forecast concentration of regional development potential on a regional basis. The study covered 14 GUS features, which measure the development potential. The forecast, nominal values and processes’ dynamics were calculated for data from 2010 to 2020, using author made method. The study reveals that key factors determining the diversification of the distribution of the potential include the relation of large agglomerations to their regional surroundings. Therefore, we are dealing with growth poles with different impact levels. Since 2010, the process of concentrating potential in Poland has taken different directions. In poorly developed regions, we observe constant distribution values. Most regions, especially those with medium and high levels of economic development, are characterized by a dynamic increase in the level of concentration 5% to 6% annually. This means that the growth poles «move away» from their surroundings and strengthen their position. Simultaneously, they slightly reduce the distance to the strongest developed region in Poland (Mazowsze). By 2020, these trends will remain unchanged, however regions with a moderately low level of development will observe the fastest growth.
The double barrier separate confinement heterostructure (DBSCH) design aimed at reduction of vertical beam divergence and increase of catastrophic optical damage (COD) level for high power laser diodes (LDs) operation is presented. Insertion of thin, wide-gap barrier layers at the interfaces between waveguide and cladding layers of SCH gives an additional degree of freedom in design making possible more precise shaping of the optical field distribution in the laser cavity. By comparison with the large optical cavity (LOC) heterostructure design it has been shown that the low beam divergence emission of DBSCH LDs can be attributed to the soft-profiled field distribution inside the cavity. This soft mode profile seems to determine narrow laser beam emission rather than the field distribution width itself. The potential problem with the soft-profiled but relatively narrow (at half-maximum) mode distribution is a lower COD level. Widening of the mode profile by the heterostructure design corrections can increase it, but care must be taken to avoid excessive decrease of confinement factor (Γ). As a result it is shown that DBSCH design is possible, where the low beam divergence and high COD level is achieved simultaneously. Wide stripe gain-guided LDs based on GaAsP/AlGaAs DBSCH SQW structures have been manufactured according to the design above. Gaussian-shaped narrow directional characteristics are in relatively good agreement with modelling predictions. Vertical beam divergences are 1315o and 1718o FWHM for design versions experimentally investigated. Threshold current densities of the order of 350270 Acm-2 and slope efficiencies of 0.95 and 1.15 W/A have been recorded for these two versions, respectively. Optical power at the level of 1 W has been achieved. The version with lower beam divergence proves to be more durable. Higher optical power levels are to be obtained after heterostructure doping optimisation.