System Dynamics is methodology for modeling and analyzing complex systems. Such systems can be characterized by interconnectedness and feedback. Applying risk assessment to the results of System Dynamics models is a challenge. Though in some cases the resulting time series data generated by a simulation may appear approximately random at a specific scale, there is often a high-degree of auto-correlation within the data series due to the deterministic nature of generation and feedback loops inherent in the system. This paper presents proposed Dynamic Risk Assessment Method (DRAM) that allows for the estimation of risk for system dynamics data series that appear to be approximately random. DRAM is based on standard risk assessment methods and is simple both to calculate and apply. In this article, the proposed method is applied to determine the risk connected with hypothetical costs of illness stemming from water supply system contamination with Cryptosporidium.
In the examined area three types of waters have been recorded: Surface Waters of winter modification, Warm Deep Waters and East Bransfield Strait Waters. Geographical location of Scotia Front is similar to that observed in previous years. The dynamics of waters within the examined area is high. It is reflected not only in physical and chemical parameters but also in the distribution of chlorophyll α. In the Front its total amount in a water column is greater than outside.
The Baltic is a unique brakish sea. Its moderate salinity is the result of the fresh river water input and non-periodic inflows of salty, oxygenated waters from the North Sea. However, the balance continually fluctuates. What impact does that have on the sea?
Development of new or upgrading of existing airplanes requires many different analyses, e.g., thermal, aerodynamical, structural, and safety. Similar studies were performed during re-design of two small aircrafts, which were equipped with new turboprop engines. In this paper thermo-fluid analyses of interactions of new propulsion systems with selected elements of airplane skin were carried out. Commercial software based numerical models were developed. Analyses of heat and fluid flow in the engine bay and nacelle of a single-engine airplane with a power unit in the front part of the fuselage were performed in the first stage. Subsequently, numerical simulations of thermal interactions between the hot exhaust gases, which leave the exhaust system close to the front landing gear, and the bottom part of the fuselage were investigated. Similar studies were carried out for the twin-engine airplane with power units mounted on the wings. In this case thermal interactions between the hot exhaust gases, which were flowing out below the wings, and the wing covers and flaps were studied. Simulations were carried out for different airplane configurations and operating conditions. The aim of these studies was to check if for the assumed airplane skin materials and the initially proposed airplane geometries, the cover destruction due to high temperature is likely. The results of the simulations were used to recommend some modifications of constructions of the considered airplanes.
This paper presents experimental observation of nonlinear vibrations in the response of a flexible cantilever beam to transverse harmonic base excitations around its flexural mode frequencies. In the experimental setup, instead of manual control of the signal excitation frequency and amplitude, a closed-loop vibration system is used to keep the excitation amplitude constant during the frequency sweep and to increase confidence in the experimental results. The experimental results show the presence of the third mode in the response when varying the excitation frequency around the fourth mode. The frequency-response curves, response spectrum and Poincaré plots were used for characterization of nonlinear dynamic behaviour of the beam.
There exist cases where precise simulations of contact forces do not allow modeling the gears as rigid bodies but a fully elastic description is needed. In this paper, a modally reduced elastic multibody system including gear contact based on a floating frame of reference formulation is proposed that allows very precise simulations of fully elastic gears with appropriately meshed gears in reasonable time even for many rotations. One advantage of this approach is that there is no assumption about the geometry of the gears and, therefore, it allows precise investigations of contacts between gears with almost arbitrary non-standard tooth geometries including flank profile corrections. This study presents simulation results that show how this modal approach can be used to efficiently investigate the interaction between elastic deformations and flank profile corrections as well as their influence on the contact forces. It is shown that the elastic approach is able to describe important phenomena like early addendum contact for insufficiently corrected profiles in dependence of the transmitted load. Furthermore, it is shown how this approach can be used for precise and efficient simulations of beveloid gears.
This article investigates unstable tiltrotor in hover system identification from flight test data. The aircraft dynamicswas described by a linear model defined in Body-Fixed-Coordinate System. Output Error Method was selected in order to obtain stability and control derivatives in lateral motion. For estimating model parameters both time and frequency domain formulations were applied. To improve the system identification performed in the time domain, a stabilization matrix was included for evaluating the states. In the end, estimates obtained from various Output Error Method formulations were compared in terms of parameters accuracy and time histories. Evaluations were performed in MATLAB R2009b environment.
Control of the technological processes of coal enrichment takes place in the presence of wide disturbances. Thus, one of the basic tasks of the coal enrichment process control systems is the stabilization of coal quality parameters at a preset level. An important problem is the choice of the controller which is robust for a variety of disturbances. The tuning of the controller parameters is no less important in the control process . Many methods of tuning the controller use the dynamic characteristics of the controlled process (dynamic model of the controlled object). Based on many studies it was found that the dynamics of many processes of coal enrichment can be represented by a dynamic model with properties of the inertial element with a time delay. The identification of object parameters (including the time constant) in industrial conditions is usually performed during normal operation (with the influence of disturbances) from this reason, determined parameters of the dynamic model may differ from the parameters of the actual process. The control system with controller parameters tuned on the basis of such a model may not satisfy the assumed control quality requirements. In the paper, the analysis of the influence of changes in object model parameters in the course of the controlled value has been carried out. Research on the controller settings calculated according to parameters T and τ were carried out on objects with other parameter values. In the studies, a sensitivity analysis method was used. The sensitivity analysis for the three methods of tuning the PI controller for the coal enrichment processes control systems characterized by dynamic properties of the inertial element with time delay has been presented. Considerations are performed at various parameters of the object on the basis of the response of the control system for a constant value of set point. The assessment of considered tuning methods based on selected indices of control quality have been implemented.
In the summer 1980-1981, in the Antarctic areas, in the coastal zone of Admiralty Bay (King George Island), complex measurements were carried out in order to investigate the proportion of wind gustiness in the processes generating marine spray systems and stimulating aerosol mass exchange between the sea and the atmosphere.
Based on the results of CTD measurements (in situ) made during r/v „Oceania" cruises in the Norwegian and Greenland Seas in 1986—1988 selected aspects of termohaline structure and water dynamics of chosen regions of the seas were described. Examples of space-time variations of temperature and salinity fields were presented and water masses geostrophic transport on the limits of the Norwegian Sea (upon the Atlantic Ocean and the Barents Sea) was estimated.
The iron ore mine owned by the state concern of Luossavaara – Kiirunavaara AB-LKAB state concern has several mining skip shaft hoists for drawing iron ore. Despite using modern systems to secure the travel of these hoists in line with the Swedish regulations, units intended for the emergency breaking of vessels must be used in the so-called free travel paths in the tower and in the shaft sump. The paper discusses the main requirements that, in accordance with the Swedish regulations as regards the operational use of mining shaft hoists, must be met by devices of this type and a solution was proposed for a structure design of the braking unit for the mining shaft hoist installed in the B-1 shaft in the Kiruna mine. The frictional braking system in the form of moving bumping beams was decided to be used in the said hoist, developed in the Cable Transport Department in the University of Science and Technology in Krakow. The action of moving bumping beams consists in these beams, placed at the beginning of free travel paths, not only braking the rushing hoist vessels but also (with the integrated units for vessel capture) performing the function of grips. They secure the vessels against falling down into the shaft after the finished braking process. The advantage of such a solution is that the structural elements: the guiding shank of the tower, the head of the vessel and the bumping beams, transfer many times lower values of dynamic forces at the time of the strike of the vessel against the moving bumping beams when compared with dynamic forces arising at the time of the hit of the vessel against the fixed bumping beams. In the process of designing moving bumping beams, braking simulation is an important stage conducted with a computer program developed in KTL AGH. This program enables the modelling of load-bearing and balance ropes as flexible elements with elastic and suppressing properties. The results of these simulations, especially in the scope of the achieved braking deceleration of the vessels, the values of braking distances and forces in the load-bearing ropes are crucial in confirming the correctness of the assumed concept of the emergency braking system. The braking units in the form of moving bumping beams have been executed by the Polish company Coal-Bud Sp. z o.o. and are now being integrated in the tower and in the shaft sump of the B-1 shaft of the Kiruna mine in Sweden.
Dynamic angle measurement (DAM) plays an important role in precision machining, aerospace, military and artificial intelligence. Because of its advantages including high sensitivity, solid state and miniaturization, fibre-optic gyroscope (FOG) has great application prospects in the field of DAM. In this paper, we propose a dynamic angle metrology method based on FOG and a rotary table to evaluate the DAMaccuracy with FOG. The system synchronously collects data from the FOG and rotary table, and analyses the DAM accuracy of the FOG for different sway conditions compared with that of the angle obtained from the rotary table. An angle encoder in the rotary table provides absolute or incremental angular displacement output with angular displacement measurement accuracy of 10′′ (0:0028◦) and angular displacement repeat positioning accuracy of 3′′ (0:00083◦), and can be used as an angle reference. The experimental results show that the DAM accuracy of the FOG is better than 0:0028◦ obtained with the angular encoder, and the absolute DAM accuracy of the FOG is better than 0:0048◦ for given conditions. At the same time, for the multi-path signal synchronization problem in the metrology field, this paper proposes a signal delay measurement method combining test and algorithm procedures, which can control a delay within 25 #22;s.
The problem of optimally controlling a Wiener process until it leaves an interval (a; b) for the first time is considered in the case when the infinitesimal parameters of the process are random. When a = ��1, the exact optimal control is derived by solving the appropriate system of differential equations, whereas a very precise approximate solution in the form of a polynomial is obtained in the two-barrier case.
The problem of mathematical modelling and indication of properties of a DIP has been investigated in this paper. The aim of this work is to aggregate the knowledge on a DIP modelling using the Euler-Lagrange formalism in the presence of external forces and friction. To indicate the main properties important for simulation, model parameters identification and control system synthesis, analytical and numerical tools have been used. The investigated properties include stability of equilibrium points, a chaos of dynamics and non-minimum phase behaviour around an upper position. The presented results refer to the model of a physical (constructed) DIP system.
The aim of the paper was to develop determination methods of sedimentation characteristics using PIV image anemometry and suspension image analysis. Two methods of the investigation of sed- imentation process based on visualization techniques were developed. In the first one, using PIV method, vector fields of the velocity of settling particles are determined and then average particle velocities are calculated to establish the so called sedimentation dynamics curve. In the second one, the methods of suspension image analysis are utilized to determine the positions of the upper dis- continuity and to establish the sedimentation curve. Laboratory research on the sedimentation of agalit particles suspended in glycerine was conducted (using PIV method). Additionally, industrial research on the sedimentation of water-absorbing granular material used after the first carbonation (carbonation I) was conducted in a sugar factory (using the second method). The research consisted of photographic registration of images of the settling suspension by means of the time-lapse photog- raphy technique. A laboratory study was conducted for four values of the volume concentration of agalit particles in glycerine (0.5; 1.0; 1.5 and 2.0 vol%). The research methodology, the scope of the conducted measurements and sample research results together with conclusions are presented in this paper.
The paper addresses the issues of quantification and understanding of Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC) based on numerical modelling carried out under four European, EU, research projects from the 7FP within the Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking, FCH JU, activities. It is a short review of the main projects’ achievements. The goal was to develop numerical analyses at a single cell and stack level. This information was integrated into a system model that was capable of predicting fuel cell phenomena and their effect on the system behaviour. Numerical results were analysed and favourably compared to experimental results obtained from the project partners. At the single SOFC level, a static model of the SOFC cell was developed to calculate output voltage and current density as functions of fuel utilisation, operational pressure and temperature. At the stack level, by improving fuel cell configuration inside the stack and optimising the operation conditions, thermal stresses were decreased and the lifetime of fuel cell systems increased. At the system level, different layouts have been evaluated at the steady-state and by dynamic simulations. Results showed that increasing the operation temperature and pressure improves the overall performance, while changes of the inlet gas compositions improve fuel cell performance.
This paper presents a robust model free controller (RMFC) for a class of uncertain continuous-time single-input single-output (SISO) minimum-phase nonaffine-in-control systems. Firstly, the existence of an unknown dynamic inversion controller that can achieve control objectives is demonstrated. Afterwards, a fast approximator is designed to estimate as best as possible this dynamic inversion controller. The proposed robust model free controller is an equivalent realization of the designed fast approximator. The perturbation theory and Tikhonov’s theorem are used to analyze the stability of the overall closed-loop system. The performance of the developped controller are verified experimentally in the position control of a pneumatic actuator system.
The nonlinear interaction of wave and non-wave modes in a gas planar flow are considered. Attention is mainly paid to the case when one sound mode is dominant and excites the counter-propagating sound mode and the entropy mode. The modes are determined by links between perturbations of pressure, density, and fluid velocity. This definition follows from the linear conservation equations in the differential form and thermodynamic equations of state. The leading order system of coupling equations for interacting modes is derived. It consists of diffusion inhomogeneous equations. The main aim of this study is to identify the principle features of the interaction and to establish individual contributions of attenuation (mechanical and thermal attenuation) in the solution to the system.
This paper researches the application of grey system theory in cost forecasting of the coal mine. The grey model (GM(1.1)) is widely used in forecasting in business and industrial systems with advantages of minimal data, a short time and little fluctuation. Also, the model fits exponentially with increasing data more precisely than other prediction techniques. However, the traditional GM(1.1) model suffers from the poor anti-interference ability. Aimed at the flaws of the conventional GM(1.1) model, this paper proposes a novel dynamic forecasting model with the theory of background value optimization and Fourier-series residual error correction based on the traditional GM(1.1) model. The new model applies the golden segmentation optimization method to optimize the background value and Fourier-series theory to extract periodic information in the grey forecasting model for correcting the residual error. In the proposed dynamic model, the newest data is gradually added while the oldest is removed from the original data sequence. To test the new model’s forecasting performance, it was applied to the prediction of unit costs in coal mining, and the results show that the prediction accuracy is improved compared with other grey forecasting models. The new model gives a MAPE & C value of 0.14% and 0.02, respectively, compared to 1.75% and 0.37 respectively for the traditional GM(1.1) model. Thus, the new GM(1.1) model proposed in this paper, with advantages of practical application and high accuracy, provides a new method for cost forecasting in coal mining, and then help decision makers to make more scientific decisions for the mining operation.
A novel dual mode logic (DML) model has a superior energy-performance compare to CMOS logic. The DML model has unique feature that allows switching between both modes of operation as per the real-time system requirements. The DML functions in two dissimilar modes (static and dynamic) of operation with its specific features, to selectively obtain either low-energy or high-performance. The sub-threshold region DML achieves minimum-energy. However, sub-threshold region consequence in performance is enormous. In this paper, the working of DML model in the moderate inversion region has been explored. The near-threshold region holds much of the energy saving of subthreshold designs, along with improved performance. Furthermore, robustness to supply voltage and sensitivity to the process temperature variations are presented. Monte carol analysis shows that the projected near-threshold region has minimum energy along with the moderate performance.
Influenced by the dynamic pressure of the front abutment pressure and the lateral abutment pressure, large deformation of surrounding rock occurs advancing working face in the entry heading adjacent to the active longwall mining face. Based on the cause analysis of entry large deformation, a new technology was put forward to solve the problem, and the designing method of drilling hole parameters for directional hydraulic fracturing was formed. Holes are drilled in the entry or in the high drainage entry to a certain rock layer over the adjacent working face, hydraulic cutting or slotting at the bottom of a borehole were also applied in advance to guide the hydraulic fractures extend in expected direction, through which the hard roof above the coal pillar can be cut off directionally. As a result, the stress concentration around the entry was transferred, and the entry was located in a destressing area. The field test at Majialiang coal mine indicates that the propagation length of cracks in single borehole is more than 15 m. After hydraulic fracturing, the large deformation range of the entry is reduced by 45 m, the average floor heave is reduced by 70%, and the average convergence of the entry’s two sides is reduced by 65%. Directional hydraulic fracturing has a better performance to control the large deformation of the dynamic pressure of the entry heading adjacent to the advancing coal face. Besides, it can improve the performance of the safety production.
The paper analyzes the changing public-private dynamics in higher education in Poland in 1990-2016 and beyond, focusing on the processes of internal and external de-privatization of the system. De-privatization of higher education – viewed also as its republicization – is caused by declining demographics and may lead to the demise of the largely demand-absorbing private higher education. Poland is shown as moving against the two powerful global trends related to privatization: private sector growth and increasing reliance on cost-sharing. Data related to funding and provision in 1990-2005 (expansion) and 2006 and beyond (contraction) are analyzed in detail, and policy implications of ongoing and expected changes are discussed.
With the rise of coal mine underground reservoir engineering in the Shendong Mining Area, the space time dynamic evolution prediction of storage coefficient is becoming one of the critical technical problems for long-term reservoir operation. This coefficient directly determines the storage capacity and the comprehensive benefits of the operation of a coal mine underground reservoir. To this end, the proposed underground reservoir in Daliuta coal mine (No. 22616 working face) is selected in this study for the development and application of an experimental device to measure the storage coefficient. Rock and coal fragments from similar materials are prepared, which are filled and loaded according to the caving rock nature as well as the lumpiness and accumulation mode characteristics pertaining to No. 22616 working face. Subsequently, the measured storage coefficient under circulating water injection conditions revealed a four-dimensional spatial and temporal pattern. It followed the law of storage coefficient under joint interaction of water-rock and stress. The results showed that, prior to the experiment, rock and coal fragments made from similar materials had good water resistance when the paraffin content was set at 8%. The three stress zones were defined based on a theoretical analysis, which were applied on the corresponding loads. During the experiments, significant regional differences were found in the top surface with persisting subsidence of each stress loading zone. Hence, compared with its initial state, the maximum subsidence in the stress stability zone, the stress recovery zone, and the low-stress zone was 7.89, 5.8, and 1.83 mm, respectively. While the storage capacity and the storage coefficient gradually decreased, the former ranged from 0.2429 to 0.2397 m3, and the latter ranged from 0.270 to 0.266. The experimental results are verified by drainage engineering tests in the Shendong Mining Area. In essence, the storage coefficient had remarkable spatial distribution characteristics and a time-varying effect. In space, the storage coefficient increased with height along the vertical direction of the coal mine underground reservoir. However, it decreased with the distance from the boundary of the dam body in the horizontal direction. With time, the storage coefficient decreased dynamically. This study provides a new way of predicting the storage coefficient of a coal mine underground reservoir.