If the most parsimonious behavioral model between an observed behavior, Y, and some factors, X, can be defined as f(Y|X₁, X₂), then f_x1 will measure the impact in behavior of a change in factor X₁. Additionally, if f_x1x2 ≠ 0, then the impact in behavior of a change in factor X₁ is qualified, or moderated by X₂. If this is the case, X₂ is said to be a moderating variable and f_x1x2 is said to be the moderating effect. When Y is modeled via a logistic regression, the moderation effect will exist regardless of whether the index function of the logit specification includes a moderation term or not. Thus, including a moderation terms in the index function will help the researcher more precisely qualify the moderation effect between X₁ and X₂. The question that naturally arises is whether the researcher must include the moderation term or not. In this document, we provide the conditions in which moderation terms will naturally arise in a logistic regression and introduce some modeling guidelines. We do so by introducing a general framework that nests models with no moderation terms in three scenarios for the independent variables, commonly found in applied research.

In the paper, we document how conditional dependencies observed in the FOREX market change during a trading day. The analysis is performed for the pairs (GBP/EUR, USD/EUR) and (GBP/USD, EUR/USD) of exchange rates. We consider daily returns calculated using the exchange rates quoted at different hours of a day. The dynamics of the dependencies is modeled by means of 3-regime Markov regime switching copula models, and the strength of the linkages is described using dynamic Spearman’s rho and the dynamic coefficients of tail dependence. The established approach allows us to monitor the changes in the dependence structure.

Bartlett’s paradox has been taken to imply that using improper priors results in Bayes factors that are not well defined, preventing model comparison in this case. We use well understood principles underlying what is already common practice, to demonstrate that this implication is not true for some improper priors, such as the Shrinkage prior due to Stein (1956). While this result would appear to expand the class of priors that may be used for computing posterior odds, we warn against the straightforward use of these priors. Highlighting the role of the prior measure in the behaviour of Bayes factors, we demonstrate pathologies in the prior measures for these improper priors. Using this discussion, we then propose a method of employing such priors by setting rules on the rate of diffusion of prior certainty.

Starting from consideration that urban intersections are sites with promise for safety and operational improvements, the paper describes the steps taken to develop a crash predictive model for estimating the safety performance of urban unsignalized intersections located in Palermo, Italy. The focus is on unsignalized four-legged one-way intersections widespread in Italian downtowns. The sample considered in the study consist of 92 intersections in Palermo, Italy. For the study were collected crashes occurred in the sites during the years 2006‒2012, geometric design and functional characteristics and traffic flow. Results showed that data were overdispersed and NB1 distributed. In order to account for the correlation within responses Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) were used under different working correlation matrices.

Steel frame wind bracing systems are usually made of hot rolled profiles connected to frame elements directly or through a gusset plate. The behaviour of angle bracing members is generally complex since controlled by tension or compression, bending and torsion. The common practice is to transform the problem of complex behaviour into the buckling strength of a truss member. This paper deals with an analytical formulation of the force-deformation characteristic of a single angle brace subjected to compression. A strut model takes into consideration the effect of brace end connections and softening effect of its force-deformation characteristic. Two different boundary conditions, typical for engineering practice, are dealt with. Experimental program of testing the behaviour of angle brace in portal sub-frame specimens is described. Results of experimental investigations are presented. They are used for the validation of developed model. Conclusions are formulated with reference to the application of validated brace model in the analysis of braced steel frameworks.

The influence of the CO₂ concentration in a local air zone in naturally ventilated residential houses on the residents’ behaviour was numerically investigated. A numerical two-dimensional CFD model of the indoor zone based on experiments performed by the authors was used. Different resident locations in the fluid domain and different inlet velocities imposed by wind were considered in simulations. The overall thermal comfort and IAQ indices were also calculated. The investigations results show that in contrast to the overall air quality, the local CO₂ was strongly dependent upon the resident location, fresh air inlet velocity and ventilation system type.

This study explores the influence of alkali activators on the initiation of polymerization reaction of alumino-silicate minerals present in class-F fly ash material. Different types of fly ash aggregates were produced with silicate rich binders (bentonite and metakaolin) and the effect of alkali activators on the strength gain properties were analyzed. A comprehensive examination on its physical and mechanical properties of the various artificial fly ash aggregates has been carried out systematically. A pelletizer machine was fabricated in this study to produce aggregate pellets from fly ash. The efficiency and strength of pellets was improved by mixing fly ash with different binder materials such as ground granulated blast furnace slag (GGBS), metakaolin and bentonite. Further, the activation of fly ash binders was done using sodium hydroxide for improving its binding properties. Concrete mixes were designed and prepared with the different fly ash based aggregates containing different ingredients. Hardened concrete specimens after sufficient curing was tested for assessing the mechanical properties of different types concrete mixes. Test results indicated that fly ash -GGBS aggregates (30S2‒100) with alkali activator at 10M exhibited highest crushing strength containing of 22.81 MPa. Similarly, the concrete mix with 20% fly ash-GGBS based aggregate reported a highest compressive strength of 31.98 MPa. The fly ash based aggregates containing different binders was found to possess adequate engineering properties which can be suggested for moderate construction works.

The paper presents the method of probabilistic optimisation of load bearing capacity and reliability of statically indeterminate bar structures, and of coupling of members in kinematically admissible failure mechanisms (KAFM), which contain minimal critical sets of elements (MCSE). The latter are characterised by the fact that if only a single element is operational, the whole set is operational too. A method of increasing load bearing capacity and reliability of KAFM built from bars dimensioned in accordance with the code is presented. The paper also shows estimation of load bearing capacity and reliability of KAFM of the optimised structures containing elastic-plastic bars with quasi-brittle connections with nodes. The necessity of increasing connection of load bearing capacity and reliability in relation to bar reliability in order to prevent bars from being excluded from MCSE due to connection fracture is estimated.

The main objective of this investigation is to assess the feasibility of strengthening of corroded (damaged) square hollow steel tubular sections subjected to compression and to develop or predict the suitable wrapping scheme of fibre reinforced polymer (FRP) to enhance the structural behaviour of it.For this study, compact mild steel tubes were used with the main variable being FRP characteristics. Carbon fibre reinforced polymer (CFRP) fabrics was used as horizontal strips (lateral ties) with other parameters such as the number of layers and spacing of strips. Among fourteen specimens, six were externally bonded by CFRP strips having a constant width of 50 mm with a spacing of 20 mm and the remaining six were externally bonded by CFRP strips having a constant width of 70 mm with a spacing of 20 mm, two columns were unbonded. Experiments were undertaken until the failure of columns to fully understand the influence of FRP characteristics on the compressive behaviour of the square sections including their failure modes, axial stress-strain behaviour, enhancement in the load carrying capapcity, and effect of distribution of CFRP layers. Finally, the behaviour of externally bonded hollow tubular sections was compared with one another and also with the control specimens. Evaluation of the results will lead to optimum CFRP jacketing/wrapping arrangements for the steel tubes considered here.

The transition effect between different track-foundation systems is examined from the point of view of energy that is produced during the passage of load. Analytical solution is given. A model of beam on elastic foundation with damping is used as the base model. It is developed into a model composed of two parts that represent the track-subgrade system with an abrupt change in mechanical parameters: bending stiffness, foundation stiffness, damping, and mass. Several calculations are carried out including examples of comparative calculations with the Finite Difference Model and the Finite Element Model. Transient rail deflections and energy are determined, which may serve to estimate the rate of track-subgrade deterioration.