The paper presents the results of analysis of duration of precipitation sequences and the amounts of precipitation in in-dividual sequences in Legnica. The study was aimed at an analysis of potential trends and regularities in atmospheric pre-cipitations over the period of 1966–2015. On their basis a prediction attempt was made for trends in subsequent years. The analysis was made by fitting data to suitable distributions – the Weibull distribution for diurnal sums in sequences and the Pascal distribution for sequence durations, and then by analysing the variation of the particular indices such the mean value,variance and quartiles. The analysis was performed for five six-week periods in a year, from spring to late autumn, ana-lysed in consecutive five-year periods. The trends of the analysed indices, observed over the fifty-year period, are not sta-tistically significant, which indicates stability of precipitation conditions over the last half-century.

Rainfall forecast information is important for the planning and management of water resources and agricultural activities. Turksvygbult rainfall near the Magoebaskloof Dam (South Africa) has never been modelled and forecasted. Hence, the objective of this study was to forecast its monthly rainfall using the SARIMA model. GReTL and automatic XLSTAT software were used for forecasting. The trend of the long-term rainfall time series (TS) was tested by Mann–Kendall and its stationarity was proved by various unit root tests. The TS data from Oct 1976 to Sept 2015 were used for model training and the remaining data (Oct 2015 to Sept 2018) for validation. Then, all TS (Oct 1976 to Sept 2018) were used for out of sample forecasting. Several SARIMA models were identified using correlograms that were derived from seasonally differentiated TS. Model parameters were derived by the maximum likelihood method. Residual correlogram and Ljung–Box Q tests were used to check the forecast accuracy. Based on minimum Akaike information criteria (AI) value of 5642.69, SARIMA (2, 0, 3) (3, 1, 3) ₁₂ model was developed using GReTL as the best of all models. SARIMA (1, 0, 1) (3, 1, 3) ₁₂, with minimum AI value of 5647.79, was the second-best model among GReTl models. This second model was also the first best automatically selected model by XLSTAT. In conclusion, these two best models can be used by managers for rainfall forecasting and management of water resources and agriculture, and thereby it can contribute to economic growth in the study area. Hence, the developed SARIMA forecasting procedure can be used for forecasting of rainfall and other time series in different areas.

The paper presents in form of a case study the results of 10-year long hydro-chemical studies on the Korzeń stream on which the “Skrzyszów” small storage reservoir was built. Studies aimed at evaluating the impact of the reservoir on the surface water quality in a Flysch stream. The basis for the analysis was results of 21 hydro-chemical water quality parameters, from the following groups of indicators: physical and acidity, oxygen and organic pollution, biogenic, salinity, metals. Indicators were determined in one-month intervals in two periods: 2005–2009 (before the reservoir was built) and 2015–2019 (after the reservoir was built). Obtained results were subjected to a statistical analysis. The trend analysis of changes was performed using the Mann–Kendall test or the seasonal Kendall test; significance of differences between indicator values from two periods was evaluated using the nonparametric Mann– Whitney U test. Results of analysis showed significant change trends of water quality parameters, in case of total iron concentration the trend was downward in both periods. Statistically significant differences between the values of definite majority of indicators were found in two analysed periods, indicating both favourable and unfavourable impact of the reservoir on water quality in the stream. Construction of the storage reservoir resulted in a significant change of physical and chemical indicators of water flowing in the stream. Random variation dynamics as well as tendencies and trends of changes over time have changed. In addition to modifying the stream hydro-chemical regime, the reservoir also affected the social and natural conditions.

The results of a long-term water level monitoring in three forest ponds are presented in the paper. The ponds are locat-ed in the Wielisławice and Laski forest districts in South Wielkopolska, Poland. Two of the analysed ponds are natural ones supplied by precipitation and the third now is disused artificial fishpond of throughflow water management. Systematic water level measurements, as well as measurement of basic meteorological conditions – precipitation and air temperature – were carried out in the 2000–2016 hydrological period. The basic statistics as well as the trends in long-time changes in water levels, were determined using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test were calculated. The results obtained were sta-tistically inconclusive, but they indicated downward trends in water levels in the natural ponds and upward trends in water levels in the artificial pond. Although a statistically significant downward trend was observed in only one natural pond, it may suggest some negative changes occurring in the catchment of ponds in general.