From 2009 to 2018, a total of 80 wheat crops were studied at plot and regional scales to predict stripe rust epidemics based on influential climatic indicators in Kermanshah province, Iran. Disease onset time and epidemic intensity varied spatially and temporarily. The disease epidemic variable was classified as having experienced nonepidemic, moderate or severe epidemics to be used for statistical analysis. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to identify climatic variables associated with occurrence and intensity of stripe rust epidemics. Two principal factors accounting for 70% of the total variance indicated association of stripe rust epidemic occurrence with the number of icy days with minimum temperatures below 0°C (for subtropical regions) and below −10°C (for cool temperate and semi-arid regions). Disease epidemic intensity was linked to the number of rainy days, the number of days with minimum temperatures within the range of 7−8°C and relative humidity (RH) above 60%, and the number of periods involving consecutive days with minimum temperature within the range of 6−9°C and RH% > 60% during a 240-day period, from September 23 to May 21. Among mean monthly minimum temperatures and maximum relative humidity examined, mean maximum relative humidity for Aban (from October 23 to November 21) and mean minimum temperature for Esfand (from February 20 to March 20) indicated higher contributions to stripe rust epidemic development. Confirming PCA results, a multivariate logit ordinal model was developed to predict severe disease epidemics. The findings of this study improved our understanding of the combined interactions between air temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and wheat stripe rust development over a three-season period of autumn-winter-spring.

Pigmented villonodular synovitis (PVNS) is a benign disease that rarely undergoes malignant transformation. Th ere are two types of disease: localized (nodular tenosynovitis) and diff used (pigmented villonodular synovitis/tenosynovitis) with intra- or extra-articular locations. Th e second one is limited to synovium of the burse (PVNB) or tendon sheath (PVNTS). Th e intraarticular lesions are usually located in the knee, hip, ankle and elbow joints. Histologically, PVNS is a tenosynovial giant cell tumor, characterized by proliferation of two types of mononuclear cells — predominantly small, histiocyte-like cells and larger cells with dense cytoplasm, reniform or lobulated nucleus, with accompanying multinucleated giant cells and macrophages overloaded with hemosiderin that give typical image on MRI — currently selected as a gold standard for its diagnosis. Th e classic X-ray and CT are non-specifi c but similar to ultrasound should be used to evaluate disease progression and treatment response if radiotherapeutic and pharmacological methods were selected for treatment. An open arthroscopic surgery could also be applied in selected cases.

Canine parvovirus (CPV) causes acute gastroenteritis in domestic dogs, cats, and several wild carnivore species. In this study, the full-length VP2 gene of 36 CPV isolates from dogs and cats infected between 2016 and 2017 in Beijing was sequenced and analyzed. The results showed that, in dogs, the new CPV-2a strain was the predominant variant (n = 18; 50%), followed by the new CPV-2b (n = 6; 16.7%) and CPV-2c (n = 3; 8.3%) strains, whereas, among cats, the predominant strain was still CPV-2 (n = 9; 25%). One new CPV-2a strain, 20170320-BJ-11, and two CPV-2c strains, 20160810-BJ-81 and 20170322-BJ-26, were isolated and used to perform experimental infections. Multiple organs of beagles that died tested PCR positive for CPV, and characteristic histopathological lesions were observed in organs, including the liver, spleen, lungs, kidneys, small intestines, and lymph nodes. Experimental infections showed that the isolates from the epidemic caused high morbidity in beagles, indicating their virulence in animals and suggesting the need to further monitor evolution of CPV in China.

The aim of the study was to choose and validate the tool(s) to predict the number of hospitalized patients by testing three predictive algorithms: a linear regression model, Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) model, and Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. The study used data from the collection of data on infl ammatory bowel diseases (IBD) from the public database of the National Health Fund for the years 2009–2017, data recalculation taking into account the population of provinces and the country in particular years, and prediction making for the number of patients who would require hospitalization in 2017. Th e anticipated numbers were compared with real data and percentage prediction errors were calculated. Results of prediction for 2017 indicated the number of hospitalizations for Crohn’s disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) at 17 and 16 respectively per 100,000 persons and 72 per 100,000 persons for all IBD cases. Th e actual outcomes were 21 for both CD and UC (81% and 75% accuracy of prediction, respectively), and 99 for all IBD cases (73% accuracy). The prediction results do not diff er signifi cantly from the actual outcome, this means that the prediction tool (in the form of a linear regression) actually gives good results. Our study showed that the newly developed tool may be used to predict with good enough accuracy the number of patients hospitalized due to IBD in order to organize appropriate therapeutic resources.

Four and a half years of African Swine Fever (ASF) in population of free-ranging wild boars and domestic pigs revealed a number of novel insights into the disease epidemiology. Until November 20th, 2018, in total 3048 cases in wild boars and 213 outbreaks in domestic pigs have been confirmed. In spite of low contagiosity as well as low rate of ASF spread in wild boars the disease has an enormous socio-economical impact on the production of pigs in Poland. One of the most important aspects which directly influences the dynamics of ASF spread is the unpredictable hu- man activity. Another important factor responsible for continuous ASF spread is fast recovery of wild boar population in spite of efforts taken by hunters. Assuming our scientific opinion ASF seems to be present in wildlife for the incoming few or several years. Therefore, extraordinary measures should be prepared and undertaken to limit the risk of the occurrence of future out- breaks in domestic pigs. One of the most crucial issues is implementation of strict biosecurity measures in all domestic pigs holdings.