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Abstract

The paper presents areas where the EBITDA measure is used in coal companies. The metric and the ratios where it is utilized are employed to assess companies and management efficiency, hence they are used as criteria for rewarding board members. EBITDA-based ratios are also used to evaluate the profitability of company restructuring and its goodwill in mergers and acquisitions. EBITDA, also tends to be used to value companies on the capital market. It is a good tool for efficiency assessment in coal companies with relatively stable fixed assets and small share of intangible assets, which amortized over short periods of time could interfere the comparability of relations based on this measure. The comparability is also disturbed by large investment expenditure incurred in the short term. This does not apply to the mining industry, in which investment cycles are long, last several years and expenditures are spread over time. In addition, the rate of technical progress imposing the need to implement large technology projects is not high compared to technology companies with high development dynamics.

EBITDA based ratios were used to assess a number of listed coal companies. The analysis revealed that the profit/loss of these companies is mainly determined by coal prices. The cost of coal mining is 90% fixed and projects undertaken to reduce it bear fruit only over the long term. Cyclically changing coal prices cause major losses in companies when prices are low, which leads to bankruptcies or a need to restructure. After a period of decline in 2014–2016, the profit/loss of Polish coal companies as well as companies from around the world improved in 2017–2018. T he financial standing of Polish companies was better than that of their counterparts from other parts of the world.

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Authors and Affiliations

Agata Sierpińska-Sawicz
ORCID: ORCID
Maria Sierpińska
ORCID: ORCID
Elżbieta Królikowska
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Abstract

The paper refines Lenk’s concept of improving the performance of the computed harmonic mean estimator (HME) in three directions. First, the adjusted HME is derived from an exact analytical identity. Second, Lenk’s assumption concerning the appropriate subset A of the parameter space is significantly weakened. Third, it is shown that, under certain restrictions imposed on A, a fundamental identity underlying the HME also holds for improper prior densities, which substantially extends applicability of the adjusted HME.

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Authors and Affiliations

Anna Pajor
Jacek Osiewalski
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Abstract

Dolichos ( Lablab purpureus L.) is a drought tolerant legume used as food/feed and improvement of soil fertility. The production of dolichos in Kenya, Nakuru County is however limited by insect pests like bean aphids, pod borers and whiteflies. Field studies were conducted to determine the effect of cropping systems (dolichos monocrop and maize-dolichos intercrop) and field margin vegetation on bean aphids and their natural enemies. The experiment was conducted in Njoro (high field margin vegetation) and Rongai (low field margin vegetation) during May- December 2019 and MarchNovember 2020 cropping seasons. Bean aphid percent incidence, severity of damage and abundance was assessed at seedling, early vegetative, late vegetative and flowering dolichos growth stages. The populations of natural enemies in the plots and field margin vegetation were monitored using pan traps and sweep nets. Species diversity and composition of the field margin vegetation was determined using a quadrat. Results showed that location and cropping system had significant effects on bean aphid infestations. A high bean aphid incidence (38.13%) was observed in Njoro compared to Rongai (31.10%). Dolichos monocrop had significantly higher bean aphid infestation (51.63%) than the maize-dolichos intercrop system (24.62%). A highly diverse Shannon-weaver index was observed in Rongai (1.90) compared to Njoro (1.67). Dolichos monocrop had a more diverse Shannon-weaver index (1.8) than the maize-dolichos intercrop system (1.7). Rongai had the most abundant annual and perennial field margin vegetation species. The field margin species richness and diversity were higher in Rongai (81%) than in Njoro (54%). The findings of this study have demonstrated that a maize-dolichos intercrop in Rongai can reduce bean aphid damage in dolichos.
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Authors and Affiliations

Christine N. Mwani
1
ORCID: ORCID
Jane Nyaanga
1
Erick K. Cheruiyot
1
Joshua O. Ogendo
1
Philip K. Bett
2
Richard Mulwa
1
Philip C. Stevenson
3
Sarah E.J. Arnold
3 4
Steven R. Belmain
3

  1. Crops, Horticulture and Soils, Egerton University, Kenya
  2. Biological Sciences, Egerton University, Kenya
  3. Jodrell Laboratory, Royal Botanic Gardens Kew, Richmond, UK
  4. Nelson Mandela African Institute of Science and Technology, Arusha, Tanzania
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Abstract

The aim of the research was to study the floristic richness of balks, i.e. uncultivated strips separating fields, and to research the dependence of plant communities there on habitat conditions and adjacent crops. The share of segetal species in those communities was also analysed. In the western part of the Siedlce Plateau 70 balks among intensively cultivated fields were examined in 2016–2018. The balks divided fields with corn, winter cereals and spring cereal mixtures. The research was conducted with the Braun-Blanquet method, with 110 phytosociological relevés results used as study material. The flora specified this way was analysed in terms of biological structure, forms of life, persistence, historical and geographical spectrum, species rarity and presence of invasive species. In addition, the interdependence between the species richness of balks and habitat conditions as well as the type of neighbouring crops was studied. Habitat conditions were established with the Ellenberg indicator values, based on indicative species and taking into account light, temperature, moisture, soil reaction and nitrogen content. The development and floristic diversity of balk plant communities as ecotone areas were largely influenced by a proximity of arable fields and habitat conditions, especially by soil moisture and the amount of nitrogen. Balk flora consisted of vascular plants with 161 species, mainly apophytes. Those were mostly perennial species, hemikryptophytes. Among the most common field weeds from the class of Stellarietea mediae, 25 species were identified in balks. There were 26 rare and endangered species and 14 species having the status of invasive taxa.

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Authors and Affiliations

Teresa Skrajna
Agnieszka Bogusz
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Abstract

Bartlett’s paradox has been taken to imply that using improper priors results in Bayes factors that are not well defined, preventing model comparison in this case. We use well understood principles underlying what is already common practice, to demonstrate that this implication is not true for some improper priors, such as the Shrinkage prior due to Stein (1956). While this result would appear to expand the class of priors that may be used for computing posterior odds, we warn against the straightforward use of these priors. Highlighting the role of the prior measure in the behaviour of Bayes factors, we demonstrate pathologies in the prior measures for these improper priors. Using this discussion, we then propose a method of employing such priors by setting rules on the rate of diffusion of prior certainty.

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Authors and Affiliations

Rodney W. Strachan
Herman K. van Dijk
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Abstract

One of the most critical aspects of mine design is to determine the optimum cut-off grade. Despite Lane’s theory, which aims to optimize the cut-off grade by maximizing the net present value (NPV), which is now an accepted principle used in open pit planning studies, it is less developed and applied in optimizing the cut-off grade for underground polymetallic mines than open pit mines, as optimization in underground polymetallic mines is more difficult. Since there is a similar potential for optimization between open pit mines and underground mines, this paper extends the utilization of Lane’s theory and proposes an optimization model of the cut-off grade applied to combined mining-mineral processing in underground mines with multi-metals. With the help of 3D visualization model of deposits and using the equivalent factors, the objective function is expressed as one variable function of the cut-off grade. Then, the curves of increment in present value versus the cut-off grade concerning different constraints of production capacities are constructed respectively, and the reasonable cut-off grade corresponding to each constraint is calculated by using the golden section search method. The defined criterion for the global optimization of the cut-off grade is determined by maximizing the overall marginal economics. An underground polymetallic copper deposit in Tibet is taken as an example to validate the proposed model in the case study. The results show that the overall optimum equivalent cut-off grade, 0.28%, improves NPV by RMB 170.2 million in comparison with the cut-off grade policy currently used. Thus, the application of the optimization model is conducive to achieving more satisfactory economic benefits under the premise of the rational utilization of mineral resources.

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Authors and Affiliations

Di Liu
Guoqing Li
Nailian Hu
Guolin Xiu
Zhaoyang Ma
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Abstract

Different chromosomal forms of Deschampsia antarctica Desv. (Poaceae), including diploids (2n=26), hypotriploid (2n=36–38) and a genotype with an occasional occurrence of B chromosome (2n=26+0-1B) that originated from southern marginal populations (Argentine Islands region, maritime Antarctic) were studied using molecular cytogenetic, morphometric and biochemical methods. FISH analysis revealed variations in the number of rDNA sites between the diploid and hypotriploid plants. The genome size varied among plants with a different chromosome number and was on average 10.88 pg/2C for diploids and 16.46 pg/2C for hypotriploid. The mean values of leaf length of plants grown in vitro varied within a range of 5.23–9.56 cm. The total phenolic content ranged from 51.10 to 105.40 mg/g, and the total flavonoid content ranged from 1.22 to 4.67 mg/g. The amount of phenolic compounds did not differ significantly between the genotypes, while a variation in the flavonoid content was observed for L59 and DAR12. The diploids did not differ significantly among each other in terms of the number of rDNA loci, but differed slightly in their genome size. The individuals of DAR12 carrying B chromosome were similar to other diploids in terms of their genome size, but statistically differed in leaf length. The hypotriploid had both a greater number of rDNA sites and a larger genome size. No statistical correlations were observed between the genome size and leaf length or genome size and accumulation of phenolic and flavonoid compounds. The results of this study suggest that D. antarctica plants from the southern edge of the range are characterised by the heterogeneity of the studied parameters.

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Authors and Affiliations

Daria Navrotska
Igor Andreev
Alexander Betekhtin
Magdalena Rojek
Ivan Parnikoza
Ganna Myryuta
Oksana Poronnik
Natalia Miryuta
Joanna Szymanowska-Pułka
Volodymyr Grakhov
Roman Ivannikov
Robert Hasterok
Viktor Kunakh
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Abstract

The study attempts to link the descriptive economics with the
theoretical model of permanent income and life cycle hypothesis (PILCH)
to shed some light on a low private savings rate for Polish households.
These may be explained by the households' belief that the public pension
are a collateral to borrow against, which could discourage the buffer
stock effect. The study comprises two research fields: 1) the estimation
of so called augmented wealth, and, 2) the marginal propensity to
consume (MPC) out of different types of wealth with the permanent income
model. The mean augmented wealth (i.e. net wealth plus public pension
wealth) per household in PLN amounted to 705 thousands, consisting of
public pension wealth of 388 thousands and net wealth of 415 thousands.
The model perfectly matches the augmented wealth Lorenz curve. The
average MPC out of all types of wealth reaches 10% on average, ranging
6-20%, with a negative MPC to wealth correlation, and 60% of
hand-to-mouth households. The explanation for this perfect match may
stem from a high wage growth (also public pension contributions wedge)
that that builds the public pension wealth. The Ricardian-type
households may then mentally account the future pensions as a collateral
(fiduciary money) for current high MPC, which may implicate crowding out
their propensity to save for retirement privately.
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Authors and Affiliations

Janusz Jabłonowski
1

  1. SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland
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Abstract

In response to the inability of the flexible DC transmission system connected to the AC grid under conventional control strategies to provide inertia to the system as well as to participate in frequency regulation, a virtual synchronous generator (VSG) control strategy is proposed for a voltage source converter (VSC)-based multi-terminal high-voltage direct current (VSC-MTDC) interconnection system. First, the virtual controller module is designed by coupling AC frequency and active power through virtual inertia control, so that the VSC-MTDC system can provide inertia response for AC grid frequency. Second, by introducing the power margin of the converter station into the droop coefficient, the unbalanced power on the DC side is reasonably allocated to reduce the overshoot of the DC voltage in the regulation process. Finally, the power regulation capability of the normal AC system is used to provide power support to the fault end system, reducing frequency deviations and enabling inter-regional resource complementation. The simulation model of the three-terminal flexible DC grid is built in PSCAD/EMTDC, and the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy is verified by comparing the conventional control strategy and the additional frequency control strategy.
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Authors and Affiliations

Congshan Li
1
ORCID: ORCID
Xiaowei Zhang
1
Ping He
1
ORCID: ORCID
Zikai Zhen
1
ORCID: ORCID
Kefeng Zhao
1

  1. College of Electrical Information Engineering, Zhengzhou University of Light Industry, China
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Abstract

Dry marginal agricultural land (DryMAL) potentially use as an alternative resource for crop production. DryMAL de-fined as land having low natural fertility due to its intrinsic properties and forming environmental factors. This study uses Sentinel-2A imagery to map the spatial extent, compare the result of the classification, and identify the change in DryMAL occupation. The area of study (461.9 km2) is part of Situbondo Regency and is located at the eastern part of East Java, In-donesia. Sentinel-2A image captured in dry-season of 2018 use for this study. Then, supervised image classification using a maximum likelihood algorithm use for image treatment and processing. Furthermore, 450 ground control points for train-ing areas collected during the field surveys. Five bands use in the classification process. The maps produced from the clas-sification process were then compared to the land-use map from the year 2000. The change in DryMAL occupation from 2000 to 2018 was calculated by comparing the classified and land-use map. Supervised classification yielded an overall accuracy of 95.8% and a kappa accuracy of 93.2%. The classification produced six (6) classes of land use: (1) forest, (2) pavement or built-up area, (3) irrigated paddy field, (4) non-irrigated rural area, (5) dry marginal land and (6) water body. Globally, during the last two decades, regional development led by the Regency occupied more DryMAL area for develop-ing plantation. The effort reduces the amount of non-irrigated and converting to the plantation, pavement areas, and irrigat-ed paddy-field.

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Authors and Affiliations

Indarto Indarto
ORCID: ORCID
Bayu T.W. Putra
Marga Mandala
ORCID: ORCID
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Abstract

In this paper, a new 11T SRAM cell using FinFET technology has been proposed, the basic component of the cell is the 6T SRAM cell with 4 NMOS access transistors to improve the stability and also makes it a dual port memory cell. The proposed cell uses a header scheme in which one extra PMOS transistor is used which is biased at different voltages to improve the read and write stability thus, helps in reducing the leakage power and active power. The cell shows improvement in RSNM (Read Static Noise Margin) with LP8T by 2.39x at sub-threshold voltage 2.68x with D6T SRAM cell, 5.5x with TG8T. The WSNM (Write Static Noise Margin) and HM (Hold Margin) of the SRAM cell at 0.9V is 306mV and 384mV. At sub-threshold operation also it shows improvement. The Leakage power reduced by 0.125x with LP8T, 0.022x with D6T SRAM cell, TG8T and SE8T. Also, impact of process variation on cell stability is discussed.

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Authors and Affiliations

Shilpi Birla
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Abstract

The copper and copper alloys’ ingots have been subjected to structural observation in order to estimate the Peclet Number at which these ingots were solidifying. It was stated that the formation of columnar structure within the ingots occurred at a high Peclet Number, higher than the threshold value of this parameter, Pe = 500. The formulated relationships of the Growth Law correspond to a high Peclet Number due to application of the adequate development in series of the Ivantsov’s function. The Growth Law has been developed on the basis of the definition of the wavelength of perturbation which leads to the dispersion of the planar s/l interface. New definition of the index of stability connected with the behavior of solute concentration at the s/l interface has been delivered. The current definition is related to non-equilibrium solidification. The index can be easily calculated using some parameters delivered by a given Cu-X phase diagram. Physical meaning of the formulated Growth Law has also been presented.
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Authors and Affiliations

P. Kwapisiński
1
ORCID: ORCID
W. Wołczyński
2
ORCID: ORCID

  1. KGHM Polska Miedź S.A., ul. M. Skłodowskiej-Curie 48, 59-301 Lubin, Polska
  2. Institute of Metallurgy and Materials Sciences PAS, Reymonta St. 25, 30-059 Kraków, Poland
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Abstract

Introduction: Dentin hypersensitivity is a painful clinical condition. The frequency of its occurrence varies from 8 to 57%, depending on tested group and different methods of investigations. Recommended desensitizing agents have different mechanism of action and effectiveness. We are still looking for solutions that will improve their effectiveness and simultaneously allow for wider use of e.g. as a base material, counteracting postoperative hypersensitivity, reducing marginal microleakage. The aim of the study was to assess the effect of a selected desensitizing agent occluding dentin tubules with calcium hydroxyapatite on marginal microleakage formation of a class V composite restorations subjected to thermocycles.

Materials and Methods: In study it was used 40 molars and premolars, which were alternately assigned into two groups. In both groups standardized cavities were prepared. In the study group (study group — SG) before application of bonding agent Teethmate Desensitizer (f. Kuraray, Noritake Dental Inc., Okayama, Japan) was used. In the control group (control group — CG) OptiBond All-in-one (f. Kerr, Bioggio, Switzerland) bonding agent was used and cavities were filled using composite material Gradia Direct (f. GC Europe N.V., Leuven, Belgium). After storage in saline, teeth were subjected to 600 thermo-cycles, passive dye penetration test was done, teeth were cut in the area of filling, according to its long axis. Under light microscope magnification value of microleakage was measured and marginal microleakage rate (M) was counted. The results of the tests were statistically analyzed using the package STATISTICA 12.0 (StatSoft, USA).

Results: The average value of M for the SG group was 0.46 (min 0.05, max 0.76, SD 0.226) and for CG was 0.22 (min 0, max 0.74, SD 0.235). The differences between M values were statistically significant (p = 0.0094).

Conclusion: A reduction in the number of retention sites for the bonding system, facilitates the formation of microleakage in the experimental conditions and reduces the degree of adhesion of the composite material to the hard tissues of the tooth.

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Authors and Affiliations

Elżbieta Zarzecka-Francica
Joanna Gołda
Olga Górnicka
Barbara Śliwowska
Przemysław Kustra
Małgorzata Pihut
Joanna Zarzecka
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Abstract

One of the shortcomings of the analysis of subfossil Cladocera (water flee) remains is that preservation of remains is selective. Of Daphnia spp. which are very common in zooplankton assemblages of lakes, usually only postabdominal claws and ephippia are found. In the present paper I describe Daphnia shell margins and some tail spines from the Holocene sediments of a lake in southern Finland where the margins were much more abundant than the postabdominal claws, indicating that postabdominal claws may be underrepresented. Daphnia claws, shell margins and tail spines were found also in surface samples of 17 Finnish lakes and thus the abundance of tail spines could be compared with that of postabdominal claws. The results showed that in most cases the tail spines are more abundant than postabdominal claws and may give a closer estimate of the true abundance of Daphnia. However, in some lakes claws were clearly more frequent than tail spines. Apparently, there are differences in preservation of different types of Daphnia remains between lakes, possibly connected with water chemistry. Overall, the results indicate that probably Daphnia remains are always underrepresented in lake sediments.
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Authors and Affiliations

Kaarina Sarmaja- Korjonen
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Abstract

From the perspective of a virtual power plant (VPP) with electric vehicles (EVs), a self-scheduling strategy considering the response time margin (RTM) and state of charge margin (SOCM) is proposed. Firstly, considering the response state of the state of charge (SOC) and charge-discharge state of EVs, a VPP based response capacity determination model of EVs is established. Then, RTM and SOCM indexes are introduced on the basis of the power system scheduling target and the EV users’ traveling demands. The RTM and SOCM indices are calculated and then are used to generate a priority sequence of responsive EVs for the VPP. In the process of the scheduling period and rolling iteration, the scheduling schemes of the EVs in the VPP for multiple time periods are determined. Finally, the VPP self-scheduling strategy is validated by taking an VPP containing three kinds of EV users as an example. Simulation results show that with the proposed strategy, the VPP is able to respond to the scheduling power from the power system, while ensuring the traveling demands of the EV users at the same time.

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Authors and Affiliations

Fengshun Jiao
Yongsheng Deng
Duo Li
Bo Wei
Chengyan Yue
Meng Cheng
Yapeng Zhang
Jiarui Zhang
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Abstract

The model considered in the paper is defined as VAR with the prior distribution for parameters generated by the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The degree of economic restrictions in the DSGE-VAR model is controlled by the weighting parameter. In the paper there is investigated the impact of the weighting parameter prior specifications for the posterior shape of impulse response functions (IRFs). In case of conditional models the paths of IRFs highly depend on the value of the weighting parameter that is set arbitrary. When considering full estimation with different prior types, means and gradual change in the dispersion the posterior time paths of IRFs are similar in models with high values of the marginal data density.

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Authors and Affiliations

Renata Wróbel-Rotter
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Abstract

Experimental observations of the steel morphology as well as measurements of the solutes concentration in the macro-scale were made on the basis of the vertical cut at the mid-depth of the 15-tons steel forging ingot serially produced in one of the steel plant in Poland. Experimental observations of the morphology accompanied by the measurements of the Peclet Number were also made on the cross-section of the continuously cast brass ingots serially produced in the copper / brass industry in Poland. The performed measurements allowed to work out some maps of the alloying elements segregation for the longitudinal section of the steel static ingot and a Growth Law for the columnar grains formation in the brass ingots. The marginal stability criterion has been applied to the last mentioned development / description. Some suggestions for the micro-segregation measurement mode in the columnar structure are derived.

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Authors and Affiliations

W. Wołczyński
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Abstract

Electric cars (SE) are currently considered to be one of the best ways to reduce CO2 and other air emissions in the transport sector as well as noise in cities. They can reduce the dependency of road transport on imported oil in a visible way. Nevertheless, the demand for electricity for a large amount of SE in road transport is not insignificant and has an impact on the power system. The article analyzes the potential impact of SE on the demand, supply, structure and costs of electricity generation as well as emissions as a result of introducing 1 million SEs by 2025 on Polish roads, and tripling this number by 2035. The competitive electricity market model ORCED was used for the calculations. The results of the analysis indicate that regardless of the charging strategy, the demand for SEs causes a slight increase in the overall electricity demand in Poland and consequently also a slight increase in power generating costs. Even a large increase in SEs in road transport will result in a rather moderate demand for additional generation capacity, assuming that power companies will have some control over the mode of charging cars. The introduction of SEs will not reduce CO2 emissions compared to conventional cars in 2025, on the contrary will increase them regardless of the loading strategy. In 2035 however, the result depends on the charging scenario and both the increase or decrease of emissions is possible. Electric vehicles will increase SO2 net emissions, but they will contribute to a decrease in the net emissions of particulates and NOx.

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Authors and Affiliations

Uroš Radović
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Abstract

Analytical design of the PID-type controllers for linear plants based on the magnitude optimum criterion usually results in very good control quality and can be applied directly for high-order linear models with dead time, without need of any model reduction. This paper brings an analysis of properties of this tuning method in the case of the PI controller, which shows that it guarantees closed-loop stability and a large stability margin for stable linear plants without zeros, although there are limitations in the case of oscillating plants. In spite of the fact that the magnitude optimum criterion prescribes the closed-loop response only for low frequencies and the stability margin requirements are not explicitly included in the design objective, it reveals that proper open-loop behavior in the middle and high frequency ranges, decisive for the closed-loop stability and robustness, is ensured automatically for the considered class of linear systems if all damping ratios corresponding to poles of the plant transfer function without the dead-time term are sufficiently high.
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Authors and Affiliations

Jan Cvejn
1

  1. University of Pardubice, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Informatics, Studentska 95, 532 10 Pardubice, Czech Republic
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Abstract

In this work, we perform an analysis of the characteristics of the one-year and ultimate reserve risk distributions commonly used in actuarial science: duration, first development factor, coefficient of variation, skewness coefficient, skewness-to-CoV ratio, emergence factor, emergence pattern, and risk margin run-off patterns. Our study is based on empirical data for two European markets: the Polish and Slovak markets. We provide benchmarks and ranges for the considered characteristics, as well as analyse the relations between them. We study Solvency II lines of business and compare our coefficients of variation to the Standard Formula reserve risk standard deviations. We investigate more deeply the topic of emergence pattern and risk margin run-off patterns.
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Authors and Affiliations

Marcin Szatkowski
1

  1. Institute of Econometrics, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland; Risk Department, STU ERGO Hestia SA
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Abstract

This paper presents concepts of value chains as strategic models for long-term development and a sustainable approach for ensuring efficiency. It highlights the fact that value chains are of particular importance in the raw materials industry, where the exploration, extraction, processing and metallurgy stages are characterized by high capital expenditure and fixed costs. Additionally, it emphasizes that offering an increasingly valuable product at each stage of production or processing makes it possible to increase earnings and achieve a higher margin. In order to give a practical dimension to the presented analyses, the paper provides an example of lithium value chains and identifies the determinants of their functioning in the current market together with their prospects. The conclusion highlights Europe’s need to source raw materials within business models based on value chains.
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Authors and Affiliations

Arkadiusz Jacek Kustra
1
ORCID: ORCID
Sylwia Lorenc
1
ORCID: ORCID
Marta Podobińska-Staniec
1
ORCID: ORCID
Anna Wiktor-Sułkowska
1
ORCID: ORCID

  1. AGH University of Science and Technology, Poland
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Abstract

Since wind power generation has strong randomness and is difficult to predict, a class of combined prediction methods based on empiricalwavelet transform(EWT) and soft margin multiple kernel learning (SMMKL) is proposed in this paper. As a new approach to build adaptive wavelets, the main idea is to extract the different modes of signals by designing an appropriate wavelet filter bank. The SMMKL method effectively avoids the disadvantage of the hard margin MKL method of selecting only a few base kernels and discarding other useful basis kernels when solving for the objective function. Firstly, the EWT method is used to decompose the time series data. Secondly, different SMMKL forecasting models are constructed for the sub-sequences formed by each mode component signal. The training processes of the forecasting model are respectively implemented by two different methods, i.e., the hinge loss soft margin MKL and the square hinge loss soft margin MKL. Simultaneously, the ultimate forecasting results can be obtained by the superposition of the corresponding forecasting model. In order to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, it was applied to an actual wind speed data set from National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for short-term wind power single-step or multi-step time series indirectly forecasting. Compared with a radial basic function (RBF) kernelbased support vector machine (SVM), using SimpleMKL under the same condition, the experimental results show that the proposed EWT-SMMKL methods based on two different algorithms have higher forecasting accuracy, and the combined models show effectiveness.
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Authors and Affiliations

Jun Li
1
Liancai Ma
1

  1. Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730070, China

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