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Abstract

The rapid development of the global economy has led to an increasing demand for resources. The disparity between the supply and demand of resources continues to be prominent and shows a situation of short supply. Resource investment projects with large amounts and long construction periods face many risks due to various unpredictable factors. Cultural, legal, economic and other environments vary between different countries. Therefore, comprehensive risk identification, understanding, evaluation, and analysis are important prerequisites for the success of mineral investment. In this paper, the risk of mineral resources investment in host countries is identified. A risk evaluation index system is established to objectively evaluate the risk environment of the host country. The risk evaluation index system includes four first-level indexes: political and legal risk, social and cultural risk, economic and financial risk, and natural risk. The subjective weight was determined by sending questionnaires to experts and scholars in the industry and conducting data processing. The entropy method was used to determine the objective weight. Finally, the subjective weight and the objective weight were combined to obtain a group of scientific and accurate combined weights. The matter-element theory was introduced into the cloud model and a risk assessment model based on the cloud matter-element theory was constructed with comprehensive consideration of the fuzziness and randomness of risks. Eight countries with relatively rich mineral resources were taken as cases to verify the model application. The research results provide a theoretical basis and decision-making methods for mineral enterprise investment.
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Authors and Affiliations

Jie Hou
1
Guoqing Li
1
Jiahong Ling
1
Lianyun Chen
2
Wei Zhao
3
ORCID: ORCID
Baoli Sheng
3

  1. University of Science and Technology Beijing, China
  2. University of Science and Technology Beijing, China; Shandong Gold Group Co., Ltd., Jinan, China
  3. Sanshandao Gold Mine, Shandong Gold Group Mining (Laizhou) Co., Ltd., Yantai, China
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Abstract

Construction risk assessment is the final and decisive stage of risk analysis. When highly changeable conditions of works execution are predicted, risk should be evaluated in the favorable, moderate, and difficult random conditions of construction. Given the random conditions, the schedule and cost estimate of the construction are developed. Based on these values, the risk of final deadline delay and the risk of total cost increase of construction completion are calculated. Next, the charts of the risks are elaborated. Risk changes are shown in the charts and are analyzed in the range [1, 0].

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Authors and Affiliations

T. Kasprowicz
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Abstract

Overseas mining investment generally faces considerable risk due to a variety of complex risk factors. Therefore, indexes are often based on conditions of uncertainty and cannot be fully quantified. Guided by set pair analysis (SPA) theory, this study constructs a risk evaluation index system based on an analysis of the risk factors of overseas mining investment and determines the weights of factors using entropy weighting methods. In addition, this study constructs an identity-discrepancycontrary risk assessment model based on the 5-element connection number. Both the certainty and uncertainty of the various risks are treated uniformly in this model and it is possible to mathematically describe and quantitatively express complex system decisions to evaluate projects. Overseas mining investment risk and its changing trends are synthetically evaluated by calculating the adjacent connection number and analyzing the set pair potential. Using an actual overseas mining investment project as an example, the risk of overseas mining investment can be separated into five categories according to the risk field, and then the evaluation model is quantified and specific risk assessment results are obtained. Compared to the field investigation, the practicability and effectiveness of the evaluation method are illustrated. This new model combines static and dynamic factors and qualitative and quantitative information, which improves the reliability and accuracy of risk evaluation. Furthermore, this evaluation method can also be applied to other similar evaluations and has a certain scalability.

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Authors and Affiliations

Zhaoyang Ma
Guoqing Li
Nailian Hu
Di Liu
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Abstract

Praktyka badawcza w biomedycynie ma fundamentalne znaczenie dla rozwoju bardziej bezpiecznych i skutecznych metod leczniczych. Praktyka ta ma więc ogromną wartość społeczną, jest jednak działalnością moralnie problematyczną, ponieważ jej realizacja wymaga narażania ludzi na ryzyko dla dobra innych – nauki, przyszłych pacjentów i społeczeństwa jako całości. Problem ten jest szczególnie widoczny w przypadku badań niemających potencjału dostarczenia uczestnikom bezpośrednich korzyści zdrowotnych – tzw. badaniach „nieterapeutycznych”. Istnieje międzynarodowy konsensus co do tego, że prowadzenie badań „nieterapeutycznych” na osobach niezdolnych do wyrażenia zgody jest dopuszczalne tylko wtedy, gdy ryzyko związane z udziałem w takich badaniach nie przekracza pewnego minimalnego progu. Brak jednak zgody co do tego, czy powinien istnieć nieprzekraczalny próg ryzyka badawczego, na jakie mogą narażać się osoby kompetentne za swoją zgodą. Celem pracy jest przedstawienie argumentów etycznych przemawiających za wyznaczeniem maksymalnego dopuszczalnego poziomu ryzyka w badaniach „nieterapeutycznych” z udziałem ochotników. Przeanalizowane zostają także sposoby wyznaczenia takiego maksymalnego progu ryzyka, zawarte w dokumentach regulacyjnych oraz sformułowane w literaturze bioetycznej.

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Authors and Affiliations

Joanna Różyńska

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