Monte-Carlo method for assessing and predicting the reliability of thermal power plant equipment

Journal title

Archives of Thermodynamics




vol. 42


No 4


Sultanov, Makhsud Mansurovich : National Research University MPEI, Krasnokazarmennaya 17, Moscow, 111250 Russia ; Griga, Stepan Anatolyevich : PJSC “Mosenergo”, Vernadsky Avenue 101/3, Moscow, 119526 Russia ; Ivanitckii, Maksim Sergeevich : National Research University MPEI, Krasnokazarmennaya 17, Moscow, 111250 Russia ; Konstantinov, Anatoly Alekseevich : National Research University MPEI, Krasnokazarmennaya 17, Moscow, 111250 Russia



Reliability indicators ; technical condition ; Monte-Carlo method ; Boiler plant ; Steam turbine ; Park resource ; forecasting

Divisions of PAS

Nauki Techniczne




The Committee of Thermodynamics and Combustion of the Polish Academy of Sciences and The Institute of Fluid-Flow Machinery Polish Academy of Sciences


[1] Jiang Z., Huang X., Chang M., Li C., Ge Y.: Thermal error prediction and reliability sensitivity analysis of motorized spindle based on Kriging model. Eng. Fail. Anal. 127(2021), 105558.
[2] Mullor R., Mulero J., Trottini M.: A modelling approach to optimal imperfect maintenance of repairable equipment with multiple failure modes. Comput. Ind. Eng. 128(2019), 24–31.
[3] Maa Z., Rena Y., Xianga X., Turk Z.: Data-driven decision-making for equipment maintenance. Automat. Constr. 112(2020), 103103.
[4] Milovanovic Z.N., Papic LR, Milovanovic S.Z., Milovanovic V.Z., Dumonjic- Milovanovic S.R., Brankovic D.L.: Methods of risk modeling in a thermal power plant. In the Handbook of Reliability. In: Maintenance, and System Safety through Mathematical Modeling, Academic Press, 2021, 315–372.
[5] Gao W.: Comparison study on nature-inspired optimization algorithms for optimization back analysis of underground engineering. Eng. Comput. 37(2020), 3, 1895– 1919.
[6] Palakodeti S.R., Raju P.K., Guo H.: A dynamic process for evaluating the reliability of fossil power plant assets. Eng. Rep. 2(2020),12, e12277.
[7] Yuyama A., Kajitani Y., Shoji G.: Simulation of operational reliability of thermal power plants during a power crisis: Are we underestimating power shortage risk? Appl. Energ. 231(2018), 901–913.
[8] Jagtap H.P., Bewoor A.K., Kumar R., Ahmadi M.H., Assad M.E., Sharifpur M.: RAM analysis and availability optimization of thermal power plant water circulation system using PSO. Energ. Rep. 7(2021), 1133–1153.
[9] Ahmadizadeh P., Mashadi B., Lodaya D.: Energy management of a dual-mode power split powertrain based on the Pontryagin’s minimum principle. IET Intell. Transp. Syst. 11(2017), 9, 561–571.
[10] Melchor-Hernández C.L., Rivas-Dávalos F., Maximov S., Coria V.H., Guardado J.L.: A model for optimizing maintenance policy for power equipment. Elect. Power Energ. Syst. 68(2015), 304–312.
[11] Abunima H., Teh J., Lai C.M., Jabir H.J.: A systematic review of reliability studies on composite power systems: a coherent taxonomy motivations, open challenges, recommendations, and new research directions. Energies 11(2018), 9, 2417.
[12] Ellis M., Bojdo N., Filippone A., Clarkson R.: Monte Carlo Predictions of Aero-Engine Performance Degradation Due to Particle Ingestion. Aerospace 8(2021), 6, 146.
[13] Ivanitckii M.S., Sultanov M.M., Trukhanov V.M.: Analysis of the influence of operating modes of heat generating plants on the energy and environmental safety of thermal power plants. In: Proc. 2nd 2020 Int. Youth Conf. on Radio Electronics, Electrical and Power Engineering, REEPE 2020, Moscow, March 12–14, 2020, 9059205.
[14] Arakelyan E.K., Boldyrev I.A., Gorban Y.A.: TPP generating unit technical and economic index accuracy increase. In: Proc. 2nd 2020 Int. Youth Conf. on Radio Electronics, Electrical and Power Engineering, REEPE 2020, Moscow, March 12–14, 2020, C. 9059234.
[15] McIntyre K.B.: A review of the common causes of boiler failure in the sugar industry. In: Proc. S. Afr. Sug. Technol. Ass. 76(2002), 355–364.
[16] Shopeju O.O., Oyedepo S.O.: A comprehensive review of thermal power plants reliability using stochastic methods. IOP Conf. Ser.-Mat. Sci. Eng. 1107(2021), 1, 012161.
[17] Menni Y., Chamkha A.J., Zidani C., Benyoucef B.: Analysis of thermohydraulic performance of a solar air heater tube with modern obstacles. Arch. Thermodyn. 41(2020), 3, 78–83.
[18] Loutzenhiser P.G., Manz H., Felsmann C., Strachan P.A., Frank T., Maxwell G.M.: Empirical validation of models to compute solar irradiance on inclined surfaces for building energy simulation. Sol. Energy 81(2007), 2, 254–67.
[19] Broday E.E., Ruivo C.R., da Silva M.G.: The use of Monte Carlo method to assess the uncertainty of thermal comfort indices PMV and PPD: Benefits of using a measuring set with an operative temperature probe. J. Build. Eng. 35(2021), 1, 101961.






DOI: 10.24425/ather.2021.139652

Editorial Board

International Advisory Board

J. Bataille, Ecole Central de Lyon, Ecully, France

A. Bejan, Duke University, Durham, USA

W. Blasiak, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden

G. P. Celata, ENEA, Rome, Italy

L.M. Cheng, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China

M. Colaco, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

J. M. Delhaye, CEA, Grenoble, France

M. Giot, Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium

K. Hooman, University of Queensland, Australia

D. Jackson, University of Manchester, UK

D.F. Li, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming, China

K. Kuwagi, Okayama University of Science, Japan

J. P. Meyer, University of Pretoria, South Africa

S. Michaelides, Texas Christian University, Fort Worth Texas, USA

M. Moran, Ohio State University, Columbus, USA

W. Muschik, Technische Universität Berlin, Germany

I. Müller, Technische Universität Berlin, Germany

H. Nakayama, Japanese Atomic Energy Agency, Japan

S. Nizetic, University of Split, Croatia

H. Orlande, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

M. Podowski, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, USA

A. Rusanov, Institute for Mechanical Engineering Problems NAS, Kharkiv, Ukraine

M. R. von Spakovsky, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, USA

A. Vallati, Sapienza University of Rome, Italy

H.R. Yang, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China